[Some more extrapolations, this time taken from the fact that malware
mutation rates are increasing exponentially. - Stu]
(actually, this wasn't written for an FD audience, please excuse the
bit where it urges you to consider your migration strategy, I know
you're all ultra-l33t and don't have a single M$ box on your LAN)
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/08/13/malware_arms_race/
If this trend continues, there will come a time when the amount of
malware is so large, that anti-malware filters will need more power
than the systems they are protecting are able to provide.
At this time, those systems will become essentially worthless, and
unusable.
You can choose to leave now, or later. But you cannot choose to
stay...
(I mean, that the Windows platform seems destined to fill,
completely, with malware, such that your computer will spend ALL its
time on security matters, and will have no CPU, RAM etc left for
actual work. At the end of the day, the ability of malware to infect
Windows machines is due to the fact that Windows is a monoculture, a
monolith, built by a single company, with many interconnections and
hidden alleyways. It's hard to imagine a platform LESS vulnerable -
compare with open-source efforts, which are diverse, homogenous and
connect via open protocols. Malware finds life hard in the sterile,
purified world of RFCs, where one of many different programs may
process your malicious payload, all of which have been peer-reviewed.
In Windows, malware knows that a specific Microsoft EXE will process
its data, knows that the code has not been thoroughly checked, and
can make use of undocumented mechanisms.
So basically Microsoft, by hoarding their source, by tightly
integrating functionality, and by seeking to monopolise the various
markets created by the platform (browser, media player, office
software), have doomed Windows, and everything that runs on it. The
lack of diversity in the Windows ecosystem means that it is highly
vulnerable to attack by predators. The fact that malware mutation
rates are accelerating is a clear indicator that the foxes are
circling. This is the beginning of a death spiral; the malware
numbers we've seen in the past 20 years were the low end of an
exponential curve, and we're now getting to the steep part.
The problem is that any given computer is only capable of so much
processing. It has an upper limit to the amount of malware it can
filter, those limits being related to CPU speed, RAM, diskspace,
network bandwidth. This upper limit looks like a horizontal line, on
the chart that shows the exponential curve mentioned above.
So my point, is that eventually, the exponential curve is going to
cross that horizontal line, for any given computer, and when that
happens, that computer will no longer be able to filter malware. It
will only be able to filter a subset, and thus be vulnerable to the
rest. Consequently it will not be usable, for instance, on the web,
and will essentially become a doorstop...
The only escape from this inevitability is to ditch the platform that
is permitting the malware - that is, the only escape is to ditch
Windows. It is being eaten alive, by predators that only have a
foothold because there are weaknesses in the platform.
Given that it can take years to migrate to a new operating system, I
do recommend, if you have not already done so, that you commence
planning to ditch Windows. I might be wrong about the exponential
curve, but if I'm not, then there may not be a lot of time in between
when malware levels seem managable, and the time when they are not.
If your business depends on Windows machines and they all become
unusable, you will have no business. What you definitely must NOT
do, is assume that Windows is going to be around for a long time. It
is a dead man walking.
- Of course, there might be a few years yet. You can spend those
years running up your IT bill, with lots of new computers that are
required to filter all that malware while still performing at a
useful speed. Or, you can ditch Windows, and keep your existing
hardware - it runs perfectly well, when it's not weighed down
defending the indefensible.
[If Microsoft dooming Windows isn't ironic enough, consider that
every time malware authors pump out another set of mutations, they
are nailing one more nail in the coffin of the platform that they
depend on to make their living! Ahh, there is justice in the world
after all.]
[And the end game? Well, M$ could open-source Windows, but frankly,
why would anyone bother trying to fix it? As the old saying goes,
don't flog a dead horse...]
---
Stuart Udall
stuart at@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx net - http://www.cyberdelix.net/
---
* Origin: lsi: revolution through evolution (192:168/0.2)
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